Mar 13 2020 update: S&P500 forecast from Jan 2020 provided to the clients predicts accurately the timing of the fall of the markets following the COVID-19 effect.
Mar 3 2020 update: One of the most affected company from the Corona Virus (COVID-19) is the Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd. (RCL)
How it was affected and what is the forecast for this stock for the next year?
When purchasing a forecast, you will get a JPG picture with projection lines indicating the most probable future trend and timing for the selected price instrument (symbol).
This model is a single-line model (the yellow line). It is a combination of the annual cycle and the weekly cycle. The annual cycle provides the smoothed annual trend while the weekly cycle provides the exact timing. By combining the two we get both the trend and the exact timing.
These lines are "floating" over the price line, they do not indicate exact price levels.
A review for this new "combined" model with 20 different price instruments is available here.
The Combined Model (Yellow line)
(*) Note: The charts may be wrong, the market is always stronger, so you must use your trading skills and risk management methods
We provide accurate timing and trend direction months ahead for any price instrument with minimum of 4 years of price history, with an intuitive visual picture (*) .
Technical or fundamental analysis are not required for understanding the forecast (but can be supportive for trading).
(*) Note: Price levels for the next swing can be derived from ZIGZAG statistics
The fastest way to generate profits is by trading these cycles (buy low, sell high). However, they could never be found by Technical or Fundamental analysis, nor by traditional scientific methods such as Spectrum, Fourier, Wavelet etc...
At Cycles-Trader we cracked the way to extract and reconstruct these cycles, after a decade of research, which makes forecasting the stock market a hard task but not impossible. We developed a unique method using neural-networks to forecast any well-traded price instrument, as long as it has at least 4 years of qualified price history.
FutureChart pictures are created by running the generic forecast algorithms on the specific price instrument selected by the customer and intended for his own personal use.
Note: The order is for a single forecast for a single price instrument for the selected forecast horizon. You can then order additional forecasts of your choice.
Traders: 2. 3 or 4 months - enabling the planing of the next few swings
Family Office: 5, 6 or 9 months - enabling the planing of the next few months' investments
Investors: 12 months - enabling the planing of the next multiple investments
The FutureChart models use neural-networks mathematics to find the correlation of the effects of thousands of cycles and events in the past on the price movements and create a projection line that is prolonged to the future.
The FutureChart models are agnostic to the price instrument. They support any forex, commodities, stocks and indexes as long as it is well traded (we prefer stocks where share price is higher than $5) and has at least 4 years of price history.
From our experience with hundreds of price instruments, 95% of them correlate with the FutureChart with accuracy of about 80%-95% tested visually.
The most effective way to experience projection lines accuracy is by comparing the real price with the forecast visually. Projection lines forecast accuracy depend on the specific price instrument. We do not guarantee 100% accuracy.
The Neural Networks mathematics can provide solutions that are 180 degrees off the trend, it is up to Cycles-Trader to try and align the projection lines with the price. This is a manual process where we are trying to fit curves. This is the reason we sometimes provide a few weeks of out-of-sample period for validation with the forecasts. This process alone cannot fully mitigate this risk.
When price is trending up and suddenly false, the trigger for that event may be earlier, due to the nature of cycles.
Be aware that no system is 100% accurate and that projection lines may rarely be inverted.
The models provides price directions probabilities in different resolutions. In shorter forecast horizons use the weekly model . In longer forecast horizons use the annual model. Or, use the combined model instead.