When Will This Crisis End? Past Crisis Analysis


18 Mar
18Mar


The Corona crisis led to the stock-market collapse in 30%. When will this end?


In the following article I present the performance of the Combined model in a few cases of stock-market crisis where the price went down 20%-30%.

There are 3 views for each case:

  • Before the start of the downward movement, a few months before
  • In the midst  of the crisis, near the lowest  point
  • After the crisis is over, a few months later

We want to see that:

  • The annual forecast is catching the direction
  • The weekly forecast it catching the dates of the turning-points

As we can see from the examples head, the forecast indicates very well both the annual change of direction and the exact dates of the bottoms.

If so, When is there a large fall predicted?

When the annual cycle (blue) goes downwards and the weekly cycle (pink) goes sharply down.

How can we identify this is only a correction?

When a correction is predicted only the weekly cycle (pink) goes down while the annual cycle (blue) goes up or stays sideways.


The years analyzed: 1962, 1966, 1969, 1974, 1987, 1946.

1962 Before

1962 In The Midst 

1962 After

1966 Before

1966 In The Midst

1966 After 


1969 Before

1969 In The Midst

1969 After 


1974 Before

1974 In The Midst

1974 After 


1987 Before

1987 In The Midst

1987 After 


1946 Before


1946 In The Midst


1946 After 

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