S&P/TSX Is Looking For Bottom - Should I Help?

10 Nov

A friend sent me a question about the TSX Venture Index:

This index is watched by many of the traders and everybody is wondering when the low will come, but by
most standards nobody has been able to identify the low. The 2000+ stocks on this index are resource-based. In other words,
when Gold moves, the rotation of funds move into larger blue chip Gold stocks, then it goes into Mid-tier Gold producers, and finally into the junior exploration stocks - on the Venture exchange. The Venture exchange has been in a brutal bear market for a long time, with no end in sight.

I loaded the symbol ^SPCDNX price history and ran the Annual Cycle.

First the learning board cursor (LBC) was set to the beginning of 2019 and check that the Annual Cycle reflect the forecated cycles in 2019.

The Annual Cycle on 2019 shows the sideways move of the price, with the inclination to start moderate upward on 2020.

We will now move the  learning board cursor (LBC) to Nov 2019 and run the Annual Cycle again.

The new Annual Cycle that now contains the additional price information fro Jan to Nov 2019 is very similar to the Annual Cycle from Jan 2019. 

Thus, we can see that the Annual Cycle is consistent .

To the original question: can we see the bottom?

We can see that the Annual Cycle indicates a sideway move on 2020 and a moderate uptrend towards early 2021 and the a downward again. 


1. This is not a trading advice

2. This forecast provides a rough estimation for the next 2 years using only the Annual Cycle.  Additional information and more accurate dates can be derived from the additional cycles which are part of the 5_Layer model: quarterly / monthly / bi-weekly

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