JD real case analysis for 1 Month


05 Sep
05Sep

In this case I would like to show how I use the 5_Layer model to evaluate probabilities for the next month trading.

I am using JD just as an example. This is one person example how to use these projection lines, not an advice for the method they should be used or a trading advice.


Today Sep 5 2019, we have the price history up to Sep 4 2019 taken from Yahoo Finance.

I created the projection lines from August 30, so we have a short validation (out of sample) period from August 30 to Sep 4. Typically I take  a long period, but since this symbol was already analyzed here , we already know what was the shape of the 5_Layer model 3 months ago till today. 

The horizontal lines (blue/red) represent a 5% zigzag probability for support/resistance.


What I am looking at:

Annual cycle (dark blue) already started to go up - the general annual trend is up. For me this means that every local low is an opportunity for long term buy.

Quarterly cycles (light blue) just changed direction and started to go. It supports the annual cycle general direction, but still allows shorter term cycles to go down.

Monthly cycle (green) shows a downtrend till Oct 2. This could very well mean a real downward or a sideway till end of month. 

Bi-weekly cycles (orange) show uptrend till mid Sep end down toward the end of Sep.

Weekly cycles (purple)  show down from Aug 30 to Sep 4 - enhanced by the real price validation. Up from Sep 5 to Sep 12, then down to Oct 2.

A probable expected summary for me would be: 

 - Expect an uptrend towards Sep 12, 

 - Sideway or  slight downwards towards Sep 20 

 - Sharp downwards towards Oct 2.


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