Crude Oil Analysis 2015, 2016, 2017


The following article describes in-depth analysis of the crude-oil using each of the layers of the 5-Layer model.


Figure-1: Let's take a look at Crude-Oil example from 2016.

The left side of the picture (blue background) is where the historic price model is loaded, and the Neural-Networks runs the calculation on the 5-Layer model and creates the specific projection lines.

The right side of the picture (pink background) is where the projection lines are presented.

The dark blue line is the Jupiter line. Jupiter lines describes the long term forecast. It is equivalent in concept to the 250 bars (a year) moving average.


Figure-1


This line represents a great achievement to the idea of linking astrology and the stock market, and could be useful for the long-term investors. however, it may not always be effective to the short term or swing traders.

Shorter cycles periods models are required. The 5-Layer model includes additional shorter period model that are effective for swing traders.

 

Figure-2: shows the 4 additional projection lines, each of them created by a different correlation model and represents a different price cycles period, with shorter terms.

  • Jupiter line (dark blue), relates to yearly forecast, equivalent in concept to 250 bars moving average.
  • Mars line (light blue), relates to quarterly forecast, equivalent in concept to 100 bars moving average.
  • Venus line (green), related to monthly forecast, equivalent in concept to 50 bars moving average.
  • Mercury line (orange), relates to weekly forecast, equivalent in concept to 20 bars moving average.
  • Mercury-Moon (velvet), relates to daily forecast, equivalent in concept to 10 bars moving average.


Figure-2

With the 5 projections lines generated for two years ahead, the major trend line is shown and also the minor trend lines around the major trend.

 Figure-3: Let's take a look on the same projection lines, now in a scope of 6 months ahead instead of 2 years:

Jupiter line shows a side movement. There seems to be no major up or down trends in the following 6 months.

Mars line, Venus line, and Mercury line show:

  • From Jan 2016 until mid-February 2016, possible down direction.
  • From mid-February until mid-May 2016, possible up direction.

Mercury-Moon line indicates the exact possible dates for trend reversals:

  • 10 February 2016 (low),
  • 21 April 2016 (local peak) and
  • 16 May (peak).


Figure-3


To verify that the models are positively correlated to the real price, let's now wait 6a months and load the additional price history, but without re-training the models or changing the forecast date. We will now see how the additional price bars are placed on the chart without any new calculations.

 

Figure-4: shows the additional price bars loaded and placed on the chart without any new calculations.


Jupiter line – shows a side movement. There seems to be no major up or down trends in the following 6 months. This is showing from the chart.

Mars line, Venus line, and Mercury line show:

  • From Jan 2016 until mid-February 2016, possible down direction - correct
  • From mid-February until mid-May 2016, possible up direction - correct

Mercury-Moon line indicates the exact dates for trend reversals:

  • Local low – Mid Jan - correct
  • 6-months Low - 10 February 2016 - correct
  • Local low – early April – missed
  • Local peak - 21 April 2016 - correct
  • 6-months Peak - 16 May – correct

Accuracy:

The 5-Layer model provides forecasts for directions and change of directions. It does not provide price levels. It is not 100% accurate.

The 5-Layer Astro-Based Forecast Model may be used as a decision-making assitance-tool for the experienced trader.


Figure-5 shows the performance of the 5-Layer model for Crude-Oil for year 2017:

Figure-5

Figure-6 shows the performance of the 5-Layer model for Crude-Oil for year 2015:

Figures-6


 OFF-THE-SHELF FORECATS

ADVANCED FORECASTS


Tagged:  Crude-Oil

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