Could the Iranian attack on Soudi's oil plants last week be predicted?


20 Sep
20Sep

Some price events can be predicted by technical analysis. For example when a price is breaking up a resistance line, the chances are that it will go up. Sometimes when the assumption fails and the price goes back again, this is called false breakout.

Some price events can be predicted by fundamentals such as company's report analysis and demand-supply analysis. Sometimes this approach works fine, specially in the long terms. But sometimes it fails when unexpected events occurs. For example when a "good" company releases a quarterly "good" report and the share still drops.

But some other events cannot be predicted by technical analysis or fundamental analysis.

The two examples ahead show cases where the 5_Layer model successfully predicted the price events when the technical analysis had no clue and the fundamental analysis indicated the other direction. 


The 5_Layer projection lines forecasts are the most powerful forecast algorithms to challenge that task.


Case-1: Crude OIl prices surge this week (second week of Sep 2019)  after Iranian attack on Soudi's oil plants.

No other analysis in the market could forecast this event. And yet, the 5_Layer model created on May 2019 with updated price on August 2019, specifically shows a decline in oil prices till the second week of Sep 2019 and a surge in prices following just after.

 - Annual cycle( dark blue) indicated trend change a few weeks before - an early indication.

 - Quarterly cycle (light blue) still indicates downwards, which could mean another down-trend nearby.

 - Weekly/Bi-Weekly (orange/purple) cycles indicate the exact timing of the price surge.


Case-2: BOEING stock crash after the Ethiopian 737 plan crash on Mar 2019.

BOEING is a strong company with a "good" stock. Although this is the second time of plan crash of the same model 737 with BOEING specific engine,  the fundamental analysis are the analysts expectations did not indicate any worries about the stock direction up till this event.

 - Annual cycle (dark blue) indicates negative sentiment a few weeks earlier  - an early indication..

- Quarterly cycle (light blue) and Bi-Weekly cycle (orange)  indicate the exact timing.


This is not a trading advice.

Updated forecasts with the 5_Layer model for any well-traded price instrument can be ordered here.

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