Driving In The Dark? let the Forecast Model lead the way, see the performance for FAANG in 2019
The FAANG stocks (Facebook FB, Amazon AMZN, Apple AAPL, Netflix NFLX, Google GOOG) are the leading technology stocks in the leading index of the US stock exchange.
In this article we will review how the 5_Layer forecast model predicted the long-term period of one year ahead. We will also review how this model was successful in predicting the last 4 months (first 4 months of 2020) amid the COVID-19 market failures.
We will see that the best way to use these forecasts is to have the long-term 1 year forecasts to see the general trend for the year ahead and to have updates every 4 to 6 months to see the mid and short upcoming term trend changes.
As Cycles-Trader is not a trading machine nor an algo-trading robot, the forecasts are a powerful decision-making tool, however the exact entry and exist days are the trader's decision, probably by using his favorable technical analysis tools.
We prepared a special package for the FAANG stocks for next 12 months (April 2020 to April 2021). Those who will purchase this package will be granted with a 50% discount on any of the forecasts of the 4 and 6 months for FAANG stocks that will be purchased along the year until April 2021.
FB
How did the forecast model predicted FB in the last 4 months?
Right (pink) side is the forecast.
Annual cycle (dark blue) shows the uptrend until middle of the period and then change direction to downtrend.
Monthly cycle (green) shows a downtrend till mid-Mar and a local high on mid-Feb, then an uptrend to 17 April.
Weekly cycle (pink) shows the exact dates of change of direction week after week.
How did the forecast model predicted FB in the last year?
Annual cycle (dark blue) shows the hesitation of the uptrend until June the the continuation of the uptrend till EOY.
Monthly cycle (green) shows the change of downtrend month after month.
Weekly cycle (pink) shows the exact dates of change of direction week after week.
Note that the annual cycle changes direction around Feb-Mar 2020, in this point it is advisable to re-run the algo, as we see in the upper example the details of the forecast may change.
How was the forecast from Jan 2020 for FB?
We can clearly see the change of the annual trend in Feb-Mar and the downtrend indication of the Monthly and Weekly cycles till mid-Mar and the uptrend till 17 April 2020.
AMZN
How did the forecast model predicted AMZN in the last 4 months?
Right (pink) side is the forecast.
Annual cycle (dark blue) shows the uptrend until middle of the period and then change direction to downtrend.
Monthly cycle (green) shows a local high on mid-Feb then a downtrend till mid-Mar, and and uptrend to 17 April.
Weekly cycle (pink) shows the exact dates of change of direction week after week.
How did the forecast model predicted AMZN in the last year?
Annual cycle (dark blue) shows the hesitation of the uptrend until June the the continuation of the uptrend till EOY.
Monthly cycle (green) shows the change of downtrend month after month.
Weekly cycle (pink) shows the exact dates of change of direction week after week.
AAPL
How did the forecast model predicted AAPL in the last 4 months?
Right (pink) side is the forecast.
Annual cycle (dark blue) shows the uptrend till EOY
Monthly cycle (green) shows a local high on mid-Feb then a downtrend till mid-Mar, and and uptrend to 17 April.
Weekly cycle (pink) shows the exact dates of change of direction week after week.
How did the forecast model predicted AAPL in the last year?
Annual cycle (dark blue) shows the uptrend until EOY.
Monthly cycle (green) shows the change of downtrend month after month.
Weekly cycle (pink) shows the exact dates of change of direction week after week.
NFLX
How did the forecast model predicted NFLX in the last 4 months?
Right (pink) side is the forecast.
Annual cycle (dark blue) shows the uptrend until middle of the period and then change direction to downtrend.
Monthly cycle (green) shows a local high on mid-Feb then a downtrend till mid-Mar, and and uptrend to 17 April.
Weekly cycle (pink) shows the exact dates of change of direction week after week.
How did the forecast model predicted NFLX in the last year?
Annual cycle (dark blue) shows the hesitation of the uptrend until Sep 2019 and the continuation of the uptrend till EOY.
Monthly cycle (green) shows the change of downtrend month after month.
Weekly cycle (pink) shows the exact dates of change of direction week after week.
GOOG
How did the forecast model predicted GOOG in the last 4 months?
Right (pink) side is the forecast.
Annual cycle (dark blue) shows the uptrend till EOY
Monthly cycle (green) shows a local high on mid-Feb then a downtrend till mid-Mar, and and uptrend to 17 April.
Weekly cycle (pink) shows the exact dates of change of direction week after week.
How did the forecast model predicted GOOG in the last year?
Annual cycle (dark blue) shows the hesitation of the uptrend until June the the continuation of the uptrend till EOY.
Monthly cycle (green) shows the change of downtrend month after month.
Weekly cycle (pink) shows the exact dates of change of direction week after week.
Conclusions:
A combination of long and mid trend forecasts
The forecast model does not provide a 100% accuracy, However, as a decision-making tool, The best way to use these forecasts is to have the long-term 1 year forecasts to see the general trend for the year ahead and to have updates every 4 to 6 months to see the mid and short upcoming term trend changes.
Note: As Cycles-Trader is not a trading machine nor an algo-trading robot, the forecasts are a powerful decision-making tool, however the exact entry and exist days are the trader's decision, probably by using his favorable technical analysis tools.
Can the annual cycle indicate the future of the stock?
In the last quarter the annual cycle behavior was similar between APPL and GOOL, indicating a continuation of the trend. the annual cycle behavior was similar between also FB, AMZN and NFLX, indicating a change of direction from up to down around Feb-Mar 2020.
How will this trend continue? will APPL and GOOG continue up while FB, AMZN and NFLX continue down?
A special offer
We prepared a special package for the FAANG stocks for next 12 months (April 2020 to April 2021). Those who will purchase this package will be granted with a 50% discount on any of the forecasts of the 4 and 6 months for FAANG stocks that will be purchased along the year until April 2021.